By contrast, if you look too close, your predictions end up merely mundane. No-one would be surprised to hear that next year, TVs will be bigger, phones will be smaller, and the lines of the jobless will be longer. Tell us something we don't know!
Somewhere in between those two extremes are predictions that seem plausible enough to be useful, and near enough to be relevant. So in that vein, here are four predictions for the near-future:
ENERGY
It's hard to get anyone to agree on the subjects of fossil fuels, renewables, nuclear power, and climate change – but one thing everyone can agree on is that increased energy efficiency can only be a good thing. Over the next few years, companies like British Gas will finally roll out smart meters to every household, allowing people to monitor and adjust their usage (and spending) in real time. Combined with new devices like the Nest thermostat and appliances that can alter their power consumption to help even out the National Grid's load, we'll be able to do much more with much less – and save money in the process.
Of course, we'll also have something new to worry about: keeping our new "smart grid" secure against hackers…
POLITICS
We've had several false dawns when it comes to online politics taking off in the UK. While there's plenty of blogging going on, there's much less activism; certainly nothing on the scale of recent US elections. Perhaps this is more to do with the different nature of British politics – we don't have open primaries like they do in the US, for instance – but a new generation of young people who have grown up with social media their entire lives may change that, especially given their dismal job prospects and lack of any obvious party to vote for, now that the Liberal Democrats so publicly betrayed them.
In Germany, the Pirate Party gained almost 9 per cent of the vote in Berlin's election, powered largely by young people on a platform of citizens' rights, censorship, and data protection. Similar movements are springing up elsewhere around Europe. Of course, Britain isn't quite like Europe either, but expect demands for more decentralisation and the opening up of political parties here as well – they might not be met, but they'll certainly change the debate.
TELEVISION
Books, music, games, and magazine publishers have all been completely transformed and increasingly disintermediated by the arrival of Apple, Amazon, and Google. The last man standing is television, and it's been able to put up a strong resistance so far thanks to consumer's understandable reluctance to buy new 'smart TVs' so soon after ditching their old CRTs for flat panel displays, along with the highly complex set of relationships that surround the production and distribution of shows, particularly in the US.
They won't be able to last forever. Companies like Microsoft and Sony have been progressively upgrading their games consoles to allow for the easy streaming and purchase of TV shows and films, Netflix is flexing its muscles by producing its own exclusive content such as the new David Fincher/Kevin Spacey thriller House of Cards and launching in the UK, comedians such as Louis CK are able to finance and sell shows directly to audiences for millions, and Apple is widely thought to be releasing a new TV next year. Incumbent broadcasters currently enjoy a massive advantage thanks to their low channel numbers, but when viewers switch on their TVs to be greeted by a list of their favourite shows from the Apple Store or Netflix or YouTube rather than whatever happens to be on the BBC or ITV, then we'll see things change very quickly.
SUPERMARKETS
The line between online and real-world retailers will begin blurring to the point where Tesco and Sainsburys will regard Amazon as a dangerous competitor. While supermarkets have been offering online shopping for groceries for some time now, most people aren't aware that Amazon has been trialling the same service with some innovative touches, like discounts for "subscribing" to essential consumables like nappies, cereal, or toilet rolls.
It'll be some time before Amazon will be able to offer the same choice as supermarkets and there are plenty of people who will never get used to the idea of online grocery shopping, but it has three advantages. Firstly, it has already has one of the best logistics networks in the world (unlike Ocado, which had to build its own at great expense). Secondly, it holds a vast amount of information about its customers – not just their purchases, but every single item they've ever looked at on its websites and Kindle stores. Tesco views its Clubcard database as its jewel in the crown, but Amazon can compete toe-to-toe on that score, especially with tactics like their new Price Check app.
Finally, Amazon has been happy to sell practically anything through its website, whether it's books from the largest publishers or toys from the smallest of companies. With groceries, it could open its doors to an equally wide variety of suppliers including specialist foods, levelling the playing field and allowing smaller companies to reach massive markets. It's free market capitalism at its best.
What do you think will happen over the next few years?
Posted in: Tech.news
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